The moment when, 50 years ago, Neil Armstrong planted his foot on the surface of the Moon inspired awe, pride and wonder around the world. This newspaper argued that “man, from this day on, can go wheresoever in the universe his mind wills and his ingenuity contrives…to the planets, sooner rather than later, man is now certain to go.” But no. The Moon landing was an aberration, a goal achieved not as an end in itself but as a means of signalling America’s extraordinary capabilities. That point, once made, required no remaking. Only 571 people have been into orbit; and since 1972 no one has ventured much farther into space than Des Moines is from Chicago.
The next 50 years will look very different. Falling costs, new technologies, Chinese and Indian ambitions, and a new generation of entrepreneurs promise a bold era of space development. It will almost certainly involve tourism for the rich and better communications networks for all; in the long run it might involve mineral exploitation and even mass transportation. Space will become ever more like an extension of Earth—an arena for firms and private individuals, not just governments. But for this promise to be fulfilled the world needs to create a system of laws to govern the heavens—both in peacetime and, should it come to that, in war.
The development of space thus far has been focused on facilitating activity down below—mainly satellite communications for broadcasting and navigation. Now two things are changing. First, geopolitics is stoking a new push to send humans beyond the shallows of low-Earth orbit. China plans to land people on the Moon by 2035. President Donald Trump’s administration wants Americans to be back there by 2024. Falling costs make this showing off more affordable than before. Apollo cost hundreds of billions of dollars (in today’s money). Now tens of billions are the ticket price.
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It is a mistake to promote space as a romanticised Wild West, an anarchic frontier where humanity can throw off its fetters and rediscover its destiny. For space to fulfil its promise governance is required. At a time when the world cannot agree on rules for the terrestrial trade of steel bars and soybeans that may seem like a big ask. But without it the potential of all that lies beyond Earth will at best wait another 50 years to be fulfilled. At worst space could add to Earth’s problems. | Çasti kur, 50 vjet mё parё, Neil Armstrongu vuri kёmbёn nё siperfaqen e Hёnёs shkaktoi admirim tё pёrzier me frikё, krenari e mrekullim nё mbarё botёn. Po nё kёtё gazetё qe shkruar se “njeriu, qё sot e tutje, mund tё shkojё nё univers kudo qё ja ka qejfi e qё i pjell fantazia … nё planete ku, tashmё me siguri, ka pёr tё shkuar sё shpejti”. Por jo. Zbarkimi nё Hёnё qe dicka e shtirё, nuk qe njё synim qё duhej arritur nё vetvete por njё mjet pёr tё nxjerrё nё pah mundёsitё e jashtёzakonёshme tё Amerikёs. Dhe nuk qe e nevojshme tё vihej nё dukje pёr sё dyti. Vetёm 571 vetё janё ngjitur nё orbitё dhe qё nga 1972 askush nuk ёshtё kuturisur mё thellё nё hapёsirё sesa ёshtё larg Des Moines nga Çikago. 50 vjetёt nё vijim do ndryshojnё kryekeput. Rёnia e kostove, teknologjitё e reja, ambiciet nga ana e Kinёs dhe Indisё, si dhe shfaqja e njё brezi tё ri sipermarrёsish premtojnё ta bёjnё njё epokё tё spikatur tё historisё sё zhvillimit tё hapёsires. Me siguri do tё pёrfshijё turizёm pёr tё pasurit si dhe rrjete mё tё mira komunikimi pёr tё gjithё dhe nё njё tё ardhme tё largёt mund tё pёrfshijё edhe shfrytёzimin e mineraleve dhe madje edhe transportin publik. Hapёsira do te pёrngjajё gjithnjё e mё shumё me njё aneks tё Tokёs – nje arenё ku tё maten edhe ndёrmarrjet e personat fizikё, e jo vetёm qeveritё. Por qe tё pёrmbushet ky premtim bota ka nevojё tё krijojё njё sistem ligjesh pёr tё qeverisur qiejt nё kohё paqeje dhe, nё rast nevoje, edhe nё kohё lufte. Zhvillimi i hapёsirёs deri tani ka qene i pёrqёndruar nё lehtёsimin e aktivitetit nё orbita tё ulёta – kryesisht nё komunikimet satelitore pёr transmetim dhe kёrkim. Por tani dy janё gjёrat qe po ndryshojnё. Sё pari, gjeopolitika po tenton ti japё shtytje tё re idesё pёr tё dёrguar njerёzit mё thellё nё hapёsirё, pёrtej Orbitёs sё Ulёt Tokёsore. Kina planifikon tё zbarkojё njerёz nё Hёnё nё 2035. Administrata e presidentit Trump don qё amerikanёt tё kthehen atje nё 2024. Ulja e kostove po e bёn kёtё tё spikasё si dicka me e mundshme se mё parё. Misioni Apollo kushtoi qindra miliarda dollarё (llogaritur me vlerёn e sotme). Tani vetёm cmimet e biletave shkojnё dhjetёra miliarda. [ … ] Ёshtё lajthitje tё reklamohet hapёsira si njё fshat kaubojsёsh i parё me lente romantike, nje kufi pa kontroll pёrtej tё cilit njerёzimi ka mundёsi tё heqё qafe vargonjtё dhe tё provojё serish fatin e tij. Qё kjo hapёsirё tё pёrmbushё premtimet e veta, duhen rregulla. Dhe nё njё kohё kur bota nuk po gjen pika tё pёrbashkёta pёr tё rregulluar tregtinё tokёsore tё shufrave metalike dhe farave tё sojёs, kjo duket si kёrkesё e tejmadhe. Pa ato ama, shfrytёzimi maksimal i gjithckaje shtrihet pёrtej Tokёs nuk arrihet pa kaluar, nё rastin me tё mirё, edhe njё 50 vjeçar. Nё rastin mё tё keq, hapёsira veç ka pёr ti shtuar probleme Tokёs. |